Well, we got a nice little package over the weekend in our mailbox informing us about what to do in case the Marsh floods this year. I’d known that it was a possibility for the past few weeks, so it wasn’t much of a surprise. The water levels for Lake Simcoe can be found here: “High Water Levels”. Right now the lake is about 11 centimeters from it’s maximum capacity (measurement from four days ago) from what I’ve read about it’s capacity (219.04m above sea level) in other places. Sounds like not much fun. I’d better move my computer upstairs sometime, it’s right on the floor…

Last time the marsh flooded was after Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Some info on the impact on the marsh can be found here: Canadian Hurricane Center: Remembering Hurricane Hazel.


I’ve just read through the relevant sections of the PDF document (see above link to “High Water Levels”). From what I see there, it looks like the actual level that Simcoe would have to rise to to cause flooding is 219.40 masl (maybe the other source missed a zero?), which means we’re currently about 0.47 m, or 47 cm away from a flooding scenario. At the very least, normal high levels are up to at least 219.15, which would mean at least 22 cm away. The current prediction is calling for a max of 219.30 masl (last I heard). Looks like we have a bit more breathing room either way. 🙂

Update 2:

Current Water Level (April 4, 2008): 219.02 masl

We’re still okay for now. Most of the snow has melted, so hopefully the levels can go down a bit in the next few days…

Update 3:

Current Water Level (April 14, 2008): 219.19 masl

They’ve cut back the flow on the dams to the Black River, to cut down the risk of flooding along the river. Lake Simcoe will drain slower as a result and it will take longer for the water levels to go down. We’re above the normal high levels, but they were predicting 219.30 masl before the main melt. There was a lot of rain during the past weekend, but it looks like it should be sunny and dry over the next two weeks (or just about), so the levels should lower a bit…